* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 58 63 67 69 69 75 85 88 94 96 98 93 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 58 63 67 69 69 75 85 88 94 96 98 93 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 52 55 57 59 62 65 70 76 79 82 84 82 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 15 12 11 11 15 15 17 16 19 18 22 22 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 6 6 6 5 -1 4 9 5 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 285 269 270 269 270 260 272 289 293 277 275 261 268 244 238 235 244 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 169 169 168 168 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 168 168 167 166 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 78 79 78 75 68 62 58 50 43 37 33 31 36 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 18 21 20 20 20 23 29 30 34 37 42 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 79 86 95 100 120 151 158 161 163 147 102 49 32 51 49 200 MB DIV 85 75 110 105 138 98 116 71 48 33 -4 -10 10 -2 -1 11 34 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 -3 3 7 3 1 -1 0 -4 -2 0 0 -4 1 4 LAND (KM) 223 258 296 340 340 311 267 223 195 176 171 140 117 90 76 69 51 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.2 73.6 74.0 74.3 74.9 75.0 75.1 74.8 74.8 75.1 75.3 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 65 67 69 73 75 81 82 83 80 79 81 81 80 81 80 79 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 836 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 5. 5. 4. 7. 15. 15. 20. 22. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 30. 40. 43. 49. 51. 53. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 72.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.72 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 21.9% 12.2% 8.7% 6.6% 12.5% 14.5% 24.8% Logistic: 0.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.7% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 8.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.3% 4.6% 5.4% 10.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 15.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.9% 11.8% 6.2% 3.5% 2.6% 3.8% 3.7% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/21/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 52 54 58 63 67 69 69 75 85 88 94 96 98 93 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 51 55 60 64 66 66 72 82 85 91 93 95 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 50 55 59 61 61 67 77 80 86 88 90 85 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 46 50 52 52 58 68 71 77 79 81 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT