* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 56 61 64 70 72 71 72 76 81 85 90 93 95 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 56 61 64 70 72 71 72 76 81 85 90 93 94 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 54 57 60 63 65 64 65 68 73 76 81 85 88 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 14 17 17 15 17 15 13 16 23 21 25 20 22 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 5 4 5 1 2 4 6 4 0 0 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 289 287 264 267 269 261 254 271 291 278 287 276 279 274 277 252 240 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 170 170 169 168 169 168 167 167 168 165 166 168 168 167 168 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 77 77 80 78 70 67 64 59 51 50 44 37 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 17 18 21 20 19 20 23 27 31 35 39 44 850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 57 64 76 95 101 133 145 161 181 183 196 188 167 121 60 200 MB DIV 70 75 71 85 107 121 91 87 59 66 55 22 27 4 6 -11 1 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 1 2 6 8 2 3 -3 0 -8 -6 -1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 208 216 240 290 339 271 208 134 67 64 105 108 105 93 33 9 54 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 3 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 61 63 65 68 71 74 76 77 74 74 76 77 76 77 79 78 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 7. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 22. 24. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 25. 27. 26. 27. 31. 36. 40. 45. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 71.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.3% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 14.0% 25.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 4.1% 7.9% Bayesian: 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.4% Consensus: 1.2% 8.0% 4.2% 0.3% 0.2% 4.8% 6.3% 11.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.6% 6.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.6% 2.9% 3.6% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/21/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 53 56 61 64 70 72 71 72 76 81 85 90 93 94 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 52 57 60 66 68 67 68 72 77 81 86 89 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 52 55 61 63 62 63 67 72 76 81 84 85 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 46 52 54 53 54 58 63 67 72 75 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT