* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/11/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 54 53 49 47 43 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 54 53 49 47 43 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 55 54 50 46 45 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 11 18 24 19 22 17 18 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 7 2 4 2 -2 0 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 333 316 298 302 335 338 332 310 288 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.5 27.8 27.4 27.5 26.5 25.8 26.3 26.5 27.3 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 132 135 130 131 119 111 117 119 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 69 74 79 82 78 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 14 12 11 10 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 3 -6 -22 -19 -25 -8 3 28 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 56 75 55 20 5 22 34 -33 -6 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 25 35 32 27 32 19 15 15 15 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 531 689 848 995 1142 1366 1357 1435 1636 1682 1748 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.9 26.3 27.6 28.9 30.8 32.1 32.1 31.2 30.4 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.4 63.1 62.8 62.5 61.6 60.1 57.9 55.2 52.8 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 37 28 21 16 9 5 4 4 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 13 CX,CY: 1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -3. -7. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.5 63.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/11/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.7% 8.7% 6.8% 5.3% 9.4% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 3.3% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% 3.4% 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/11/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/11/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 54 54 53 49 47 43 42 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 51 50 46 44 40 39 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 45 41 39 35 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 35 33 29 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT