* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/11/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 48 50 46 48 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 48 50 46 48 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 47 48 47 45 45 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 11 14 20 16 16 11 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 7 1 3 0 -6 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 317 320 314 299 325 330 351 325 301 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.5 26.3 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 142 132 131 135 130 116 120 120 125 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 61 64 70 77 76 77 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 11 11 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 24 8 -5 -26 -10 -5 0 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 55 38 50 37 14 9 29 -2 -39 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 18 19 30 23 19 23 14 9 -3 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 516 655 796 937 1186 1392 1446 1555 1618 1715 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.1 29.3 31.0 31.5 31.1 30.4 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.6 63.5 63.3 63.0 62.5 61.4 59.3 56.8 54.0 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 10 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 50 39 30 23 15 8 5 6 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 1. 3. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.1 63.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/11/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 7.4% 6.0% 4.8% 9.0% 9.1% 16.1% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 3.1% 3.2% 5.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.7% 3.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/11/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/11/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 48 48 50 46 48 48 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 47 49 45 47 47 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 43 45 41 43 43 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 38 34 36 36 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT