* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/10/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 49 51 53 49 49 49 53 56 57 53 48 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 49 51 53 49 49 49 53 56 57 53 48 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 47 47 46 45 46 49 52 52 48 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 11 10 13 12 19 17 19 15 19 22 24 29 31 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 5 4 4 5 2 -4 -2 0 4 6 15 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 324 304 303 303 307 324 337 343 311 309 281 251 258 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.2 26.8 26.9 27.4 27.3 27.0 25.6 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 149 143 135 130 128 126 115 122 124 130 130 128 115 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 60 60 66 74 76 76 74 68 72 70 69 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 15 16 17 15 16 16 20 23 26 27 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 42 41 28 16 -19 -14 -40 -25 -7 6 8 2 0 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 71 67 22 36 26 22 8 33 -35 38 44 67 76 74 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 27 32 23 26 32 30 18 16 4 10 35 5 46 108 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 254 374 498 632 766 1050 1268 1429 1501 1569 1629 1851 1803 1835 1987 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.6 28.1 30.0 31.2 31.3 30.8 30.0 30.2 31.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.6 63.7 63.5 63.4 62.8 62.2 60.7 58.3 55.8 53.1 49.7 45.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 11 9 9 11 11 13 17 21 26 27 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 57 52 41 32 20 12 8 6 5 7 6 4 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 9. 7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 4. 4. 4. 8. 11. 12. 8. 3. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.9 63.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 11.9% 8.0% 6.3% 5.0% 9.1% 9.0% 14.6% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.4% 2.9% 2.2% 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 5.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.5% 4.2% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/10/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 47 48 49 51 53 49 49 49 53 56 57 53 48 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 50 52 48 48 48 52 55 56 52 47 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 47 43 43 43 47 50 51 47 42 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 40 36 36 36 40 43 44 40 35 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT