* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/10/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 47 48 50 53 54 58 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 47 48 50 53 54 58 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 42 42 43 44 44 43 44 46 48 50 52 52 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 10 9 10 18 18 20 17 16 25 19 24 29 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 7 5 2 5 2 0 -2 -3 0 2 6 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 327 320 308 307 311 319 316 336 314 297 275 260 234 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.7 27.4 26.3 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.3 26.1 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 151 142 132 134 129 116 115 118 122 126 131 119 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 58 61 69 76 77 76 72 76 77 73 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 15 16 15 17 18 22 24 29 32 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 48 51 44 1 0 -7 -20 -21 -13 14 15 24 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 74 58 60 42 44 35 2 22 37 7 74 55 94 117 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 24 29 25 30 33 21 14 2 7 23 27 0 66 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 150 247 365 504 643 936 1207 1394 1412 1476 1588 1687 1685 1662 1724 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.5 27.1 29.5 31.1 31.7 31.7 31.3 31.3 31.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.3 63.5 63.8 63.7 63.6 63.1 62.6 61.6 59.7 57.9 56.2 53.5 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 11 8 8 8 9 14 18 22 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 61 58 51 40 23 14 9 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -3. -2. -1. 3. 5. 12. 13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 11. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 63.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 13.3% 8.8% 7.0% 5.6% 9.9% 9.4% 13.8% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.9% 3.5% 3.3% 4.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/10/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 47 48 50 53 54 58 56 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 47 48 50 53 54 58 56 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 44 45 46 43 44 46 49 50 54 52 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 38 39 36 37 39 42 43 47 45 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT