* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/10/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 44 49 49 49 45 40 38 35 35 41 41 38 39 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 44 49 49 49 45 40 38 35 35 41 41 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 39 41 42 41 39 36 34 34 34 36 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 12 9 13 20 24 27 21 21 19 32 38 32 35 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 7 2 2 -4 -1 -2 3 4 9 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 309 318 337 342 311 317 312 327 341 339 318 306 271 265 277 283 299 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.4 27.4 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.5 24.0 23.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 149 145 140 130 130 121 116 117 119 120 116 115 103 98 91 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 62 59 56 61 73 77 79 77 77 81 77 75 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 9 15 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -1 10 49 55 31 -9 -18 -53 -35 -38 -2 22 33 -14 24 5 200 MB DIV 105 93 77 63 61 66 45 13 15 -1 -22 45 65 110 57 3 31 700-850 TADV -3 6 17 15 9 22 34 36 19 15 9 21 77 10 23 22 14 LAND (KM) 89 172 281 392 512 802 1081 1341 1394 1428 1527 1604 1516 1559 1806 1937 1517 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.2 23.3 25.9 28.4 30.6 31.9 32.1 31.6 31.9 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.7 63.1 63.3 63.5 63.2 62.9 61.8 59.6 58.1 56.9 54.1 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 13 12 11 8 6 8 16 23 26 25 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 61 64 60 56 51 31 19 10 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. -15. -6. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 4. 5. 4. -0. -5. -7. -10. -10. -4. -4. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.6 62.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.55 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 7.4% 5.7% 4.8% 9.2% 8.8% 11.8% Logistic: 0.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.8% 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 3.7% 3.4% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 2.3% 1.7% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/10/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 44 44 49 49 49 45 40 38 35 35 41 41 38 39 18HR AGO 45 44 43 44 44 49 49 49 45 40 38 35 35 41 41 38 39 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 47 47 47 43 38 36 33 33 39 39 36 37 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 40 40 40 36 31 29 26 26 32 32 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT