* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/10/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 48 52 52 56 54 52 49 49 47 49 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 48 52 52 56 54 52 49 49 47 49 54 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 46 47 49 49 46 44 42 41 40 40 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 18 19 17 11 18 25 27 28 25 34 34 41 35 26 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 10 6 5 3 3 3 0 0 0 2 9 8 11 11 1 SHEAR DIR 326 309 316 327 335 300 298 312 316 323 319 322 305 277 278 281 282 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 25.9 26.4 26.4 26.8 26.5 25.7 24.5 23.5 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 156 148 145 131 129 129 113 116 118 125 123 115 105 98 91 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 -55.6 -55.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 1 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 61 57 60 64 73 75 70 66 67 74 70 69 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 15 14 18 18 18 17 19 20 24 32 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 -8 10 51 46 15 -26 -25 -44 -34 -31 -25 34 8 21 -24 200 MB DIV 108 114 85 72 44 14 35 26 11 10 -20 -34 17 9 28 4 43 700-850 TADV 4 1 21 16 24 22 22 13 15 9 -1 7 22 24 15 8 43 LAND (KM) 68 120 200 308 408 749 1003 1213 1360 1345 1484 1632 1579 1657 1816 1991 1684 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.3 25.4 27.7 29.5 32.1 32.8 32.0 31.8 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.8 62.4 62.8 63.3 63.1 63.0 62.2 60.0 58.4 57.0 53.6 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 14 13 10 13 12 6 10 19 24 22 20 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 61 62 64 59 56 34 21 14 5 4 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -1. 3. 13. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 2. 6. 4. 3. -1. -1. -3. -1. 4. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 61.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 7.3% 5.6% 4.6% 9.2% 9.5% 11.7% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.7% 2.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% 2.3% 1.8% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/10/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/10/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 48 48 52 52 56 54 52 49 49 47 49 54 55 55 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 48 52 52 56 54 52 49 49 47 49 54 55 55 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 50 50 54 52 50 47 47 45 47 52 53 53 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 44 44 48 46 44 41 41 39 41 46 47 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT