* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 55 58 61 64 63 60 58 55 53 55 57 58 54 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 55 58 61 64 63 60 58 55 53 55 57 58 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 55 57 58 57 54 50 48 47 48 49 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 15 16 18 17 24 31 28 29 24 29 19 21 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 3 6 5 0 4 0 -1 -1 1 -1 4 11 17 9 SHEAR DIR 319 324 335 318 308 304 311 294 297 306 318 312 314 299 258 261 303 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.2 27.7 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 165 165 156 134 137 130 121 123 124 132 130 127 120 113 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 70 70 68 66 65 60 63 69 71 75 76 71 73 67 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 16 17 19 20 18 19 19 20 24 28 31 25 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 7 -1 0 40 41 9 -35 -39 -51 -52 -51 -14 11 7 -46 200 MB DIV 70 103 114 102 69 77 64 59 60 39 26 15 -17 49 137 48 -14 700-850 TADV 4 10 6 12 12 12 24 27 20 24 14 3 14 18 21 38 24 LAND (KM) 277 197 92 59 128 366 640 892 1143 1339 1463 1555 1713 1780 1764 1903 1913 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.1 18.2 19.3 21.8 24.4 26.6 28.8 30.4 31.4 31.5 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.6 60.8 61.6 62.4 63.0 63.1 62.5 61.9 60.9 59.1 56.5 52.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 13 15 16 21 28 31 HEAT CONTENT 64 66 63 61 64 57 41 28 18 11 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. -3. -3. -3. -3. 1. 6. 8. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -2. 0. 2. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 58.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 14.6% 9.3% 6.7% 5.5% 10.6% 11.2% 14.2% Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.1% 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.7% 4.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 3.1% 2.8% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/09/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 56 55 58 61 64 63 60 58 55 53 55 57 58 54 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 54 57 60 63 62 59 57 54 52 54 56 57 53 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 51 54 57 60 59 56 54 51 49 51 53 54 50 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 47 50 53 52 49 47 44 42 44 46 47 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT