* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 56 57 59 61 62 62 57 53 49 49 48 52 52 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 56 57 59 61 62 62 57 53 49 49 48 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 56 57 57 58 59 60 58 54 49 46 45 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 18 17 12 16 16 18 29 28 30 29 29 26 23 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 6 3 2 8 1 2 3 0 0 -2 0 0 7 15 17 SHEAR DIR 306 320 326 332 325 311 311 303 300 310 319 316 309 282 270 275 316 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.1 26.5 26.4 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 162 162 165 159 140 136 131 123 114 119 119 132 126 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 72 72 70 67 64 63 68 73 76 77 78 78 74 66 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 16 14 14 15 16 17 20 18 17 18 20 22 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -14 -8 -1 -4 22 51 31 6 -22 -49 -43 -34 -8 6 15 -31 200 MB DIV 46 75 108 119 87 63 75 61 48 47 21 41 75 66 56 82 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 4 -1 4 21 17 23 37 28 30 23 22 14 14 -4 47 LAND (KM) 361 320 220 118 121 311 556 822 1087 1311 1416 1434 1594 1660 1728 1930 2094 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.9 18.8 21.1 23.6 26.0 28.3 30.2 31.6 32.2 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.4 59.6 60.6 61.7 62.7 63.0 62.7 62.0 61.2 59.9 57.7 54.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 12 14 15 19 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 60 64 65 62 62 59 49 31 20 12 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -2. -6. -6. -7. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 57.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 15.6% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 12.3% 16.4% Logistic: 0.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 2.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 6.5% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 4.2% 4.9% 5.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 3.2% 7.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.5% 4.1% 3.4% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/09/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/09/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 56 56 57 59 61 62 62 57 53 49 49 48 52 52 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 55 56 58 60 61 61 56 52 48 48 47 51 51 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 53 55 57 58 58 53 49 45 45 44 48 48 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 48 50 51 51 46 42 38 38 37 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT