* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/09/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 54 55 56 59 59 58 55 53 50 48 43 40 41 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 54 55 56 59 59 58 55 53 50 48 43 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 55 54 55 57 59 58 55 52 49 47 45 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 22 19 14 15 17 18 17 25 23 22 19 33 45 46 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 4 4 3 -2 0 7 0 4 -1 0 0 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 311 311 324 332 326 323 323 321 314 318 321 333 304 268 256 261 275 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.8 27.1 26.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 25.7 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 162 160 161 159 149 137 135 126 116 122 119 119 113 115 111 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 70 75 70 67 64 66 72 75 76 77 76 74 66 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -22 -19 -6 -13 51 44 17 -7 -14 -32 -47 -10 1 18 8 200 MB DIV 50 55 61 82 95 78 62 84 65 40 11 17 60 72 25 -1 -34 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 4 -2 3 14 13 39 43 24 18 24 5 2 8 3 LAND (KM) 475 392 339 240 127 241 468 719 968 1209 1438 1389 1463 1467 1480 1613 1876 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.0 20.2 22.6 25.0 27.2 29.3 31.2 32.4 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.8 58.2 59.4 60.6 61.9 62.5 62.5 62.0 61.4 60.4 58.3 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 12 15 14 17 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 54 59 63 64 61 62 53 38 24 16 8 5 4 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -12. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 55.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/09/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 15.2% 10.0% 7.5% 5.9% 11.5% 12.8% 18.7% Logistic: 1.7% 5.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 4.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 7.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.4% 5.3% 5.9% 7.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.5% 4.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% 3.1% 2.9% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/09/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/09/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 54 54 55 56 59 59 58 55 53 50 48 43 40 41 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 53 54 55 58 58 57 54 52 49 47 42 39 40 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 52 53 56 56 55 52 50 47 45 40 37 38 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 47 50 50 49 46 44 41 39 34 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT