* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 51 52 52 53 55 51 48 39 33 32 33 35 41 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 51 52 52 53 55 51 48 39 33 32 33 35 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 51 50 50 49 51 51 50 45 40 36 35 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 20 16 14 17 20 28 33 31 25 28 31 26 32 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 9 11 5 4 3 3 2 -3 2 0 2 3 7 0 SHEAR DIR 304 310 303 313 318 301 303 284 294 295 314 320 323 312 287 266 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 27.9 28.1 27.4 26.3 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.5 25.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 166 160 162 163 158 136 139 130 117 122 118 117 121 115 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -56.0 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 64 66 70 71 75 74 73 71 75 75 77 79 76 77 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 17 19 19 18 14 12 13 15 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR -6 3 -4 -16 -14 -12 18 44 28 -11 -36 -58 -64 -58 -22 10 67 200 MB DIV 65 57 74 58 81 61 71 76 124 98 17 -20 13 13 54 65 50 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 5 13 14 25 26 37 45 28 17 33 43 46 70 67 LAND (KM) 622 473 369 310 189 175 349 625 894 1156 1404 1360 1399 1453 1558 1666 1762 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.3 19.3 21.5 24.2 26.6 28.9 31.0 32.5 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.8 55.5 57.2 58.5 59.9 61.7 62.7 62.8 62.4 61.8 60.9 58.8 55.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 12 13 12 12 12 11 12 14 16 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 60 64 64 63 58 43 28 18 10 5 3 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. -3. -4. -12. -15. -14. -11. -9. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 1. -2. -11. -17. -18. -17. -15. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.4 53.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.0% 10.6% 8.0% 6.2% 11.3% 12.3% 16.9% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.0% 3.7% 2.7% 2.1% 4.1% 4.5% 6.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.4% 6.0% 3.8% 2.3% 2.0% 3.0% 2.7% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/08/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 51 51 52 52 53 55 51 48 39 33 32 33 35 41 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 51 51 52 54 50 47 38 32 31 32 34 40 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 47 47 48 50 46 43 34 28 27 28 30 36 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 41 42 44 40 37 28 22 21 22 24 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT