* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/08/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 51 51 52 55 56 58 56 53 48 43 39 35 33 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 51 51 52 55 56 58 56 53 48 43 39 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 51 50 49 50 52 53 52 49 45 41 37 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 22 20 19 18 16 15 23 27 31 24 28 39 43 64 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 7 6 0 4 0 3 -1 2 3 -1 3 -5 4 SHEAR DIR 297 307 313 306 320 319 303 296 291 300 312 318 323 317 311 306 307 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.0 27.7 28.0 27.8 26.5 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 163 162 162 161 161 153 133 137 135 121 122 120 116 114 103 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -55.2 -55.4 -56.2 -57.2 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 58 61 65 68 74 78 78 72 71 73 76 78 68 59 52 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 17 16 16 17 18 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -6 -5 -13 -23 -12 -9 34 28 12 0 -40 -70 -48 -15 17 84 200 MB DIV 26 61 55 53 61 67 75 93 91 88 50 6 -10 19 -20 -17 -5 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 0 3 3 8 7 18 28 37 22 17 19 16 -4 -31 LAND (KM) 846 678 524 406 339 143 167 397 653 904 1177 1445 1444 1444 1493 1595 1899 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.8 19.6 22.1 24.5 26.8 29.2 31.3 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.6 53.2 54.8 56.5 58.2 60.4 62.2 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.4 60.0 55.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 18 16 12 13 12 12 12 13 17 19 16 20 30 35 HEAT CONTENT 48 54 54 57 63 62 64 56 41 27 17 8 4 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.3 51.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 13.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 12.2% 19.1% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.6% 7.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 2.2% 2.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/08/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 51 51 52 55 56 58 56 53 48 43 39 35 33 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 50 50 51 54 55 57 55 52 47 42 38 34 32 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 46 46 47 50 51 53 51 48 43 38 34 30 28 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 40 43 44 46 44 41 36 31 27 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT