* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 46 48 47 50 51 55 56 55 53 47 41 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 46 48 47 50 51 55 56 55 53 47 41 35 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 44 43 43 44 46 47 48 46 42 36 33 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 22 22 18 18 13 13 21 26 28 33 32 31 46 70 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 0 2 10 2 2 1 2 4 0 1 4 3 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 289 297 310 315 310 323 306 310 295 307 301 315 324 310 315 303 301 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.5 27.0 27.9 27.1 26.4 25.9 26.4 25.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 160 163 161 160 161 161 144 125 136 128 121 117 122 117 106 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.9 -55.5 -56.2 -56.8 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 59 63 67 73 79 79 76 71 72 73 73 76 62 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 17 18 17 19 20 20 19 18 16 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -20 -11 -8 -15 -15 -1 32 51 50 30 -3 -56 -52 -18 7 38 200 MB DIV 37 25 47 75 64 78 52 86 96 123 66 34 -20 10 -5 -4 2 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 1 4 11 10 12 13 39 49 39 18 10 12 -4 -17 LAND (KM) 908 842 652 497 385 201 131 271 511 751 1019 1310 1335 1426 1535 1621 1650 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.6 17.4 18.9 20.9 23.3 25.5 27.9 30.3 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.6 53.5 55.2 56.9 59.8 61.8 63.1 63.6 63.8 63.5 61.7 58.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 15 12 12 12 11 13 17 19 21 22 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 41 48 54 54 59 64 62 61 52 34 20 12 5 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 6. 10. 11. 10. 8. 2. -4. -10. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 49.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 12.6% 8.1% 6.1% 4.9% 9.3% 10.5% 19.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.9% 5.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.7% 3.4% 4.0% 7.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1.0% 6.0% SDCON: 2.4% 10.5% 5.5% 3.6% 3.3% 4.7% 2.5% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/08/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 46 48 47 50 51 55 56 55 53 47 41 35 32 29 18HR AGO 45 44 44 46 48 47 50 51 55 56 55 53 47 41 35 32 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 44 47 48 52 53 52 50 44 38 32 29 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 39 40 44 45 44 42 36 30 24 21 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT