* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 49 49 51 52 56 59 60 61 55 51 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 49 49 51 52 56 59 60 61 55 51 45 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 47 46 46 47 50 52 53 50 45 41 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 24 20 23 19 16 16 13 18 25 32 26 27 35 63 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 6 2 4 1 7 6 4 2 1 3 0 4 3 0 -7 -18 SHEAR DIR 288 288 294 300 307 307 305 299 269 276 283 301 316 320 307 299 295 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.6 27.0 27.9 27.7 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 158 163 161 161 159 146 125 136 134 116 117 116 113 110 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.5 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 8 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 58 62 68 73 75 77 71 69 71 74 77 75 59 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 22 21 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -10 -20 -19 -11 -28 -15 -13 70 51 31 -13 -33 -41 -7 25 41 200 MB DIV 79 73 35 33 56 60 80 83 90 81 99 45 10 1 0 -33 -49 700-850 TADV -8 0 4 3 -1 11 12 9 13 16 36 54 40 36 5 -10 -37 LAND (KM) 971 940 850 680 528 343 154 228 460 719 944 1202 1388 1352 1384 1379 1457 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.7 18.5 20.2 22.8 25.2 27.2 29.4 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.7 51.6 53.3 55.0 58.3 60.6 62.2 63.4 63.7 63.3 62.2 60.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 16 13 12 13 11 11 13 14 18 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 49 54 54 63 61 63 55 37 24 16 7 4 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 10. 6. -0. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 47.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 13.2% 8.6% 6.3% 4.9% 9.7% 11.0% 19.3% Logistic: 2.0% 4.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.6% 2.5% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.7% Consensus: 1.8% 6.4% 3.7% 2.5% 1.8% 3.9% 5.1% 8.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 3.4% 7.7% 4.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.9% 3.0% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/08/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 49 49 51 52 56 59 60 61 55 51 45 42 38 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 47 47 49 50 54 57 58 59 53 49 43 40 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 43 43 45 46 50 53 54 55 49 45 39 36 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 37 39 40 44 47 48 49 43 39 33 30 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT