* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 10/02/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 57 50 48 47 39 28 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 57 50 48 47 39 28 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 56 54 50 41 34 30 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 41 42 50 44 39 30 33 43 42 39 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 14 12 17 17 8 3 4 4 4 4 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 215 213 216 218 188 165 167 181 197 200 219 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.6 26.8 26.4 26.1 23.7 19.5 18.0 14.6 14.3 13.1 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 135 125 120 117 99 81 77 70 69 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -49.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.2 2.7 1.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 38 39 39 41 51 60 63 55 46 37 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 28 28 32 41 39 35 32 29 21 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 151 161 157 143 134 127 137 174 104 63 37 -7 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -37 -25 -5 7 32 56 104 89 65 22 10 -12 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -72 -99 -106 -108 -26 3 -28 -66 -80 -89 -77 -85 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1249 1288 1335 1285 1189 960 757 734 988 1308 1475 1214 998 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.5 34.1 35.1 36.0 38.4 41.2 44.3 46.9 48.6 49.5 50.3 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.9 58.1 55.3 53.5 51.6 49.6 47.4 44.2 39.6 35.1 30.9 27.5 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 24 21 18 16 15 18 20 19 16 13 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 25 CX,CY: 24/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -25. -25. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -14. -10. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -0. 7. 7. 2. -2. -8. -20. -30. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -22. -23. -31. -42. -49. -51. -60. -66. -71. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 32.9 60.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 10/02/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 67.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 10/02/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 10/02/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 57 50 48 47 39 28 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 62 55 53 52 44 33 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 57 56 48 37 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 57 49 38 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT