* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 10/02/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 61 55 47 41 29 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 61 55 47 41 29 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 71 66 62 58 50 40 34 31 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 39 33 38 42 37 33 29 48 59 41 40 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 13 14 20 13 3 6 4 0 9 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 215 216 214 221 196 178 167 183 192 198 227 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.4 26.7 26.3 21.5 23.9 20.0 15.0 12.6 13.0 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 134 133 124 119 87 101 83 72 68 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.6 3.3 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 41 40 44 52 61 61 59 48 39 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 30 29 28 29 36 40 35 31 30 25 19 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 144 148 155 149 138 132 115 140 112 29 51 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 -39 -19 0 6 76 78 101 77 39 37 3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -44 -80 -75 -93 -85 -45 -28 -66 -101 -140 -98 -96 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1179 1267 1343 1340 1283 1049 841 721 902 1234 1480 1243 1149 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.9 33.3 34.2 35.1 37.5 40.0 43.1 46.0 48.5 50.4 51.3 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.3 60.3 57.3 54.8 52.4 49.9 48.1 45.4 41.0 36.1 31.4 28.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 25 24 22 18 15 16 20 21 19 15 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 26 CX,CY: 25/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -19. -26. -31. -33. -35. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -21. -19. -19. -16. -12. -8. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -4. 1. 4. -1. -8. -10. -19. -29. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -25. -33. -39. -51. -63. -65. -71. -77. -82. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.5 63.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 10/02/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 441.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 10/02/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 10/02/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 69 61 55 47 41 29 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 73 65 59 51 45 33 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 62 54 48 36 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 56 50 38 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT