* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 10/01/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 80 73 63 40 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 80 73 63 40 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 83 76 68 54 43 33 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 31 38 44 42 58 68 65 66 75 88 67 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 8 4 9 7 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 199 208 214 216 230 230 225 205 209 213 222 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 27.7 28.0 26.8 26.3 25.3 24.1 22.1 16.9 14.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 137 141 125 118 110 101 91 75 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -52.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 40 38 41 42 51 58 58 60 42 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 30 28 26 23 25 20 16 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 156 143 120 111 115 97 80 47 73 76 -2 -59 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 54 0 -46 -14 9 55 60 105 59 8 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -44 -61 -62 -86 -95 -117 -30 -10 -30 -62 -103 -82 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 774 929 1104 1251 1315 1310 1104 883 683 782 1116 1417 1424 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.9 34.7 36.8 39.2 42.1 44.7 46.9 48.9 50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.2 66.9 64.5 61.7 58.9 54.3 51.3 49.3 47.3 43.3 37.9 33.6 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 22 24 22 19 15 16 17 21 19 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 9 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 19 CX,CY: 18/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -17. -24. -33. -38. -41. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -26. -34. -37. -39. -36. -32. -28. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -17. -25. -31. -34. -38. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -12. -22. -45. -61. -77. -90. -99. -104. -104. -97. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 31.3 69.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 80 73 63 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 79 72 62 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 74 64 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 65 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 54 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT