* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 10/01/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 68 60 41 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 68 60 41 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 73 69 64 50 39 30 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 33 35 45 54 70 69 59 59 68 62 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 12 9 5 13 -1 -7 -1 1 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 200 201 206 215 227 236 240 227 213 217 228 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.4 27.6 27.3 26.3 26.1 24.1 21.2 18.8 15.7 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 146 151 147 136 132 118 117 102 86 78 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -49.8 -51.0 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 51 45 41 40 43 47 51 57 61 47 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 32 30 27 24 22 22 18 17 15 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 164 157 143 137 120 111 58 9 21 90 61 -63 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 48 58 8 -40 2 25 54 76 104 49 26 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -58 -74 -75 -98 -150 -80 -11 -2 -46 -88 -49 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 781 919 1131 1228 1294 1178 976 719 785 1027 1307 1457 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.0 34.5 36.1 38.2 41.8 44.3 45.8 47.8 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.3 69.0 66.8 64.0 61.3 55.3 51.6 49.8 47.1 43.5 39.4 35.2 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 22 24 25 21 15 17 19 17 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 12 10 9 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -5. -11. -17. -24. -29. -31. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -26. -31. -34. -31. -29. -26. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -22. -25. -30. -30. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -7. -15. -34. -53. -64. -74. -78. -84. -82. -78. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.7 71.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 73 68 60 41 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 68 60 41 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 58 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 57 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT