* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 10/01/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 73 67 49 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 73 67 49 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 73 70 57 44 32 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 22 29 37 55 74 72 63 57 59 66 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 10 12 10 12 6 -6 -3 3 2 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 215 201 199 203 218 237 240 242 231 218 222 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.0 27.5 26.2 25.7 21.8 20.6 17.4 13.4 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 150 152 142 135 119 112 87 85 77 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -48.9 -48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 48 45 45 46 48 56 61 60 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 31 28 26 23 22 20 18 15 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 163 150 155 149 149 121 44 -17 -7 26 50 55 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 37 54 53 10 -14 -6 39 43 100 103 82 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -14 -49 -86 -89 -167 -119 -26 -14 -17 -53 -110 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 628 720 853 1012 1154 1257 1163 928 846 834 1060 1455 1165 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.4 30.9 31.9 32.9 34.2 36.2 38.8 40.3 43.1 47.1 50.3 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.1 70.8 68.5 65.8 63.0 57.3 52.1 49.2 47.3 43.7 38.6 33.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 23 25 25 24 20 14 15 23 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 15 12 10 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -16. -22. -26. -27. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -15. -23. -29. -33. -31. -27. -24. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -8. -10. -16. -20. -26. -28. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -12. -11. -9. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -8. -26. -48. -62. -70. -75. -79. -78. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.9 73.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 9.8% 6.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.4% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.6% 2.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 75 73 67 49 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 72 66 48 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 63 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT