* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 10/01/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 77 76 61 42 26 33 34 30 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 77 76 61 42 26 33 34 30 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 79 80 78 68 54 44 38 33 29 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 23 26 39 58 69 56 40 37 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 6 12 14 7 17 9 -4 0 8 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 200 207 184 190 205 216 218 213 221 208 211 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.7 27.6 26.5 25.5 22.8 20.9 17.9 13.8 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 151 152 137 124 111 92 86 78 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -50.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -50.8 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 53 48 45 48 47 58 61 63 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 34 35 30 29 30 39 39 36 35 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 172 159 151 160 150 150 134 68 51 55 89 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 21 27 53 62 -28 -10 23 63 65 84 34 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -7 -28 -69 -65 -112 -183 -63 -13 10 -37 -162 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 587 653 742 854 991 1217 1157 859 748 730 923 1321 1140 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.9 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.5 36.2 39.3 41.1 43.7 47.2 50.7 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.6 72.6 70.6 68.3 66.0 59.9 53.3 49.8 47.8 44.7 40.4 34.9 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 21 24 29 25 16 15 20 24 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 22 19 15 12 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -15. -22. -26. -27. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -21. -24. -21. -17. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. -2. -4. -4. 7. 7. 2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -11. -9. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -14. -33. -49. -42. -41. -45. -46. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.5 74.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 11.6% 8.3% 6.9% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.5% 6.1% 5.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 10/01/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 5( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 77 77 76 61 42 26 33 34 30 29 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 74 73 58 39 23 30 31 27 26 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 55 36 20 27 28 24 23 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 49 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT