* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 58 57 52 43 35 46 45 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 58 57 52 43 35 46 45 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 58 59 56 49 42 40 36 29 23 20 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 21 19 23 21 29 39 52 62 52 43 33 34 43 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 9 6 14 8 8 -1 0 -2 12 20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 219 208 203 202 193 212 222 229 211 185 182 215 212 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.7 28.4 27.1 27.0 26.0 25.9 20.1 22.7 19.6 15.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 137 139 140 151 147 129 127 115 114 80 92 82 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -50.7 -49.9 -48.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 57 58 62 61 51 39 38 36 43 49 53 54 44 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 27 27 37 38 34 25 13 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 170 170 180 186 167 149 158 152 157 148 158 154 140 66 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 38 35 42 20 43 -3 -11 9 36 55 38 36 32 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -8 -10 -17 -16 -72 -72 -104 -29 11 -15 -5 2 -42 -96 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 419 503 564 587 791 1117 1186 1191 962 727 610 709 941 1324 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.6 33.0 34.4 35.9 38.1 40.5 42.4 43.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.2 76.4 75.6 74.2 72.8 68.7 63.6 58.4 53.8 51.2 50.0 48.2 45.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 11 13 16 20 22 22 17 14 12 12 16 21 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 40 30 23 21 14 10 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -18. -19. -18. -18. -20. -21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. 12. 13. 6. -7. -24. -14. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. -3. -12. -20. -9. -10. -16. -30. -51. -44. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.6 77.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.5% 10.6% 8.1% 6.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 5.4% 3.4% 1.9% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/30/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 58 58 57 52 43 35 46 45 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 57 57 56 51 42 34 45 44 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 52 47 38 30 41 40 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 39 30 22 33 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT