* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 64 66 64 55 39 32 36 38 33 26 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 64 66 64 55 39 32 36 38 33 26 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 64 68 69 63 51 42 36 32 27 25 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 21 17 20 21 31 51 59 57 53 44 42 55 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 -2 3 9 14 21 14 0 1 1 1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 214 219 201 199 208 204 213 217 217 209 217 201 208 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.8 28.8 27.3 27.1 26.0 25.1 18.5 18.4 17.6 15.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 136 141 140 137 153 132 129 115 107 76 76 77 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -51.7 -53.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 59 62 64 62 51 49 50 52 58 62 63 67 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 25 26 29 31 32 29 31 37 38 35 32 30 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 172 165 172 170 185 160 180 117 119 71 37 50 86 85 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 25 40 46 51 46 67 -27 -19 27 81 96 95 79 65 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -5 -10 -16 -33 -102 -160 -157 -54 -9 0 -27 -59 -103 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 304 375 445 565 588 699 1031 1136 1176 977 752 576 529 827 1374 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.0 31.2 32.7 34.4 36.0 38.0 40.4 42.8 45.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.7 76.1 75.0 73.8 70.3 65.1 59.6 54.4 50.9 49.5 48.2 46.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 14 20 24 24 20 14 13 13 15 22 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 45 39 27 23 17 11 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -18. -18. -19. -21. -22. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 2. 3. 11. 12. 7. 1. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 0. -16. -23. -19. -17. -22. -29. -32. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.1 77.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 22.5% 12.8% 9.6% 7.4% 12.2% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 13.5% 8.4% 3.3% 1.1% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 12.2% 7.2% 4.4% 2.8% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.7% 11.1% 6.6% 3.7% 2.4% 4.6% 4.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/30/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 62 64 66 64 55 39 32 36 38 33 26 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 60 62 60 51 35 28 32 34 29 22 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 57 55 46 30 23 27 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 49 47 38 22 15 19 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT