* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 71 73 74 69 56 47 55 55 46 33 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 68 71 73 74 69 56 47 55 55 46 33 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 69 71 75 77 75 64 56 53 45 34 28 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 24 21 17 19 24 34 47 59 55 47 40 46 63 62 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 1 0 9 13 15 14 11 2 1 -2 10 10 10 SHEAR DIR 195 199 215 213 192 208 188 206 212 212 192 173 175 195 222 231 252 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.8 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.1 22.7 16.2 17.0 18.9 15.5 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 138 143 144 152 140 130 125 117 91 71 73 77 71 68 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.1 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -52.9 -54.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.0 2.2 1.8 3.2 2.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 59 61 63 54 45 47 44 51 60 53 51 33 30 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 24 24 25 27 29 30 27 28 39 42 36 29 25 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 152 170 161 161 172 172 166 162 152 140 125 129 160 145 85 -69 -66 200 MB DIV 76 60 22 28 24 14 43 29 -10 16 48 83 112 26 18 21 15 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 -10 -15 -16 -60 -81 -131 -88 -25 -21 -17 -23 -41 -92 -32 LAND (KM) 237 313 365 461 547 651 836 1149 1214 1125 807 572 508 650 920 1178 1420 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.9 28.5 28.9 29.3 30.1 31.5 33.0 34.4 36.5 39.4 41.9 43.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.0 76.8 75.9 75.0 72.3 68.2 62.9 57.8 54.3 52.3 50.3 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 9 11 16 21 23 20 17 16 14 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 58 54 48 40 30 23 15 11 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 3. 4. 19. 22. 13. 2. -5. -25. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 14. 1. -8. -0. -0. -9. -22. -29. -49. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.2 77.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 35.5% 23.6% 12.2% 7.8% 14.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 13.3% 18.0% 11.5% 4.7% 1.3% 7.3% 1.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 18.9% 12.5% 6.5% 3.1% 7.2% 5.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 18.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 10.8% 18.4% 11.2% 7.2% 2.5% 4.6% 3.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 4( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 65 68 71 73 74 69 56 47 55 55 46 33 26 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 64 66 67 62 49 40 48 48 39 26 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 59 60 55 42 33 41 41 32 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 50 51 46 33 24 32 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT