* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 65 69 71 73 72 64 60 58 51 40 28 21 17 18 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 65 69 71 73 72 64 60 58 51 40 28 21 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 66 68 72 76 77 72 65 55 44 33 26 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 20 24 21 20 21 29 45 62 61 49 33 28 24 40 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 6 14 9 19 15 -2 0 -3 3 10 15 SHEAR DIR 194 186 197 207 207 187 212 200 221 237 225 190 181 201 237 255 252 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.1 24.8 14.7 23.4 22.6 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 146 138 135 138 138 154 136 131 128 116 105 68 95 93 75 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -48.9 -48.6 -49.7 -49.3 -51.5 -54.9 -57.5 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.8 3.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 56 59 64 59 46 43 40 40 44 54 46 42 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 25 26 27 30 33 32 36 40 38 33 26 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 122 156 165 153 161 179 159 175 176 214 233 195 176 118 62 -31 -81 200 MB DIV 51 71 52 20 22 59 41 56 -17 13 27 45 28 -25 0 -6 -6 700-850 TADV 7 1 -1 -2 -10 -20 -28 -58 -75 35 70 9 11 10 -25 -46 -21 LAND (KM) 165 256 335 388 439 592 676 924 1159 1189 1112 891 582 485 611 842 1172 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.3 28.2 28.7 29.1 30.0 31.1 32.4 33.7 34.9 36.4 38.6 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.1 77.0 76.6 76.2 73.7 70.7 66.5 61.1 57.3 55.0 53.3 51.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 9 13 17 21 20 14 12 14 13 10 13 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 63 58 52 45 39 23 18 13 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 10. 8. 14. 19. 16. 8. -4. -12. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 22. 14. 10. 8. 1. -10. -22. -29. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.4 77.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 35.5% 24.2% 14.5% 7.9% 13.3% 14.5% 12.5% Logistic: 15.0% 23.6% 16.2% 11.2% 3.6% 13.7% 3.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.3% 6.8% 4.0% 5.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.4% 21.9% 14.8% 10.4% 3.9% 9.2% 5.8% 4.2% DTOPS: 9.0% 13.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% SDCON: 10.7% 17.4% 10.4% 7.2% 3.9% 6.6% 5.4% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 65 69 71 73 72 64 60 58 51 40 28 21 17 18 18HR AGO 50 49 55 58 62 64 66 65 57 53 51 44 33 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 55 57 56 48 44 42 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 46 48 47 39 35 33 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT