* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 60 67 71 69 60 55 68 55 41 29 22 17 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 60 67 71 69 60 55 68 55 41 29 22 17 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 52 57 62 67 66 60 53 47 37 28 23 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 19 19 15 14 20 33 55 67 58 39 30 14 11 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 11 16 17 9 2 -1 0 2 3 9 SHEAR DIR 199 194 180 199 212 187 212 201 228 243 244 233 207 202 222 285 258 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 29.1 28.1 27.3 27.3 26.9 25.8 26.0 23.6 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 153 149 145 138 142 143 156 140 129 128 123 111 113 95 77 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -50.1 -52.7 -57.2 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 57 55 59 60 56 47 37 32 36 39 41 37 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 27 26 30 34 34 32 34 46 41 35 27 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 84 110 154 173 162 173 158 126 120 141 171 200 165 130 33 -10 20 200 MB DIV 62 50 74 54 21 32 -2 53 33 17 7 38 16 -4 -46 -9 -2 700-850 TADV 6 7 1 0 -2 -9 -2 -20 -33 -33 15 21 4 3 18 -5 -29 LAND (KM) 80 120 202 276 326 460 644 756 985 1202 1201 1144 992 895 758 594 416 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.5 30.4 31.4 32.5 33.8 35.3 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.3 77.1 75.8 73.6 70.3 66.4 62.8 59.5 57.4 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 9 12 17 17 16 13 11 10 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 68 61 57 53 40 25 20 14 11 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -10. -15. -19. -22. -22. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 6. 11. 12. 9. 11. 28. 18. 8. -3. -11. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 27. 31. 29. 20. 15. 28. 15. 1. -11. -18. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.1 77.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.52 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 17.1% 11.6% 8.1% 6.0% 11.3% 12.7% 16.1% Logistic: 9.6% 15.9% 12.0% 6.9% 1.5% 6.3% 3.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 11.1% 8.2% 5.3% 2.6% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% SDCON: 6.6% 12.0% 6.6% 3.6% 1.8% 3.5% 3.3% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 56 60 67 71 69 60 55 68 55 41 29 22 17 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 55 62 66 64 55 50 63 50 36 24 17 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 48 55 59 57 48 43 56 43 29 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 38 45 49 47 38 33 46 33 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT