* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 62 69 75 80 77 68 66 61 50 40 35 35 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 62 69 75 80 77 68 66 61 50 40 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 45 49 55 61 67 72 71 64 56 49 41 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 11 17 17 15 18 24 30 35 35 35 30 28 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 3 9 14 21 19 2 3 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 184 206 190 182 191 200 191 223 209 230 245 245 231 217 217 225 225 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.0 28.5 28.3 28.9 28.7 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.4 26.8 26.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 160 153 149 147 135 144 143 152 149 133 134 129 128 122 116 83 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 58 56 57 60 61 59 57 54 56 57 61 53 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 24 26 26 29 32 36 38 37 39 39 36 32 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 76 87 130 160 167 161 182 144 104 110 139 148 139 115 108 67 121 200 MB DIV 100 64 51 74 43 19 57 17 58 29 -2 87 57 63 40 45 13 700-850 TADV 1 5 3 1 0 -8 -11 -9 -35 -62 -14 23 17 -2 -4 -11 0 LAND (KM) 63 110 185 248 315 433 598 639 863 1136 1318 1322 1247 1163 1082 791 349 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.9 29.5 30.3 31.2 31.7 32.0 32.8 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.0 76.9 77.0 77.1 76.2 74.4 72.2 68.1 64.4 61.4 59.0 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 6 7 9 15 17 15 12 11 10 9 11 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 79 70 61 58 55 41 25 22 15 13 12 8 6 5 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 19. 21. 20. 13. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 34. 40. 45. 42. 33. 31. 26. 15. 6. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.6 77.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.58 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.4% 11.8% 8.2% 6.1% 11.3% 12.7% 19.0% Logistic: 8.7% 13.6% 8.9% 4.6% 0.9% 4.5% 3.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 7.1% 1.0% 3.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 10.7% 8.0% 5.1% 2.5% 5.5% 5.6% 6.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 25.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 19.0% SDCON: 4.9% 17.8% 8.0% 3.5% 2.2% 3.7% 4.3% 12.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/29/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 50 55 62 69 75 80 77 68 66 61 50 40 35 35 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 49 56 63 69 74 71 62 60 55 44 34 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 48 55 61 66 63 54 52 47 36 26 21 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 37 44 50 55 52 43 41 36 25 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT