* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IMELDA AL092025 09/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 54 61 69 75 79 75 69 58 51 49 40 32 30 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 54 61 69 75 79 75 69 58 51 49 40 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 54 59 63 67 67 60 50 41 34 29 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 14 16 20 13 16 24 35 44 49 51 50 49 43 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 0 0 2 3 9 16 14 18 6 2 7 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 188 179 194 189 183 205 198 235 225 236 249 258 241 236 226 222 221 SST (C) 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.9 28.4 28.3 28.3 29.0 28.2 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 165 161 158 152 144 134 142 142 142 153 141 130 126 123 123 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -53.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 57 58 54 56 57 57 52 42 38 39 41 37 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 22 22 24 25 27 29 34 34 35 32 32 36 33 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 52 78 76 98 139 163 176 129 86 109 117 120 117 116 117 74 32 200 MB DIV 76 92 74 42 55 9 38 19 47 70 26 11 41 47 43 23 18 700-850 TADV 4 1 5 4 3 -1 -7 4 0 -10 -10 0 21 23 1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 24 39 71 136 219 308 412 578 624 773 999 1235 1235 1181 1086 996 847 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 28.5 29.2 29.6 30.4 31.0 31.3 32.0 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.6 77.4 76.5 74.6 72.3 69.5 66.3 63.1 60.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 10 12 13 14 14 12 8 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 77 80 75 68 61 51 41 26 22 18 15 12 8 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 9. 12. 18. 20. 20. 15. 14. 17. 12. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 26. 34. 40. 44. 40. 34. 23. 16. 14. 5. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.8 77.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 IMELDA 09/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.64 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 17.5% 11.8% 8.2% 6.2% 11.1% 12.4% 18.5% Logistic: 6.9% 14.6% 9.3% 6.1% 1.3% 5.8% 4.8% 1.3% Bayesian: 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 11.6% 7.9% 5.2% 2.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 21.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 15.0% SDCON: 4.3% 16.3% 6.9% 3.6% 2.3% 3.9% 4.4% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 IMELDA 09/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 IMELDA 09/28/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 48 54 61 69 75 79 75 69 58 51 49 40 32 30 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 49 56 64 70 74 70 64 53 46 44 35 27 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 41 48 56 62 66 62 56 45 38 36 27 19 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 38 46 52 56 52 46 35 28 26 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT