* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 42 47 59 66 74 74 76 72 66 59 55 44 36 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 42 47 59 66 74 74 76 72 66 59 55 44 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 45 51 55 60 63 61 54 46 39 32 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 13 12 10 18 17 14 18 28 43 50 51 43 44 46 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 4 11 4 12 7 3 7 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 251 179 170 192 191 196 220 198 233 222 246 250 254 246 235 219 208 SST (C) 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.3 27.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 165 161 160 149 143 138 140 138 138 151 147 132 127 128 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 58 56 57 54 57 58 56 42 31 36 38 35 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 23 23 26 26 29 30 34 35 35 35 38 35 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 34 52 74 74 89 166 178 197 105 90 110 127 122 130 128 122 81 200 MB DIV 32 78 91 68 50 33 29 18 7 29 46 -5 3 52 41 11 20 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 4 7 0 -4 -13 -4 -8 -10 -5 31 27 10 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 77 22 45 59 128 263 293 409 582 635 671 839 1157 1285 1253 1109 886 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 28.0 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.3 77.3 77.5 77.8 77.7 77.7 76.6 74.2 72.6 71.3 68.5 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 6 5 8 9 6 9 16 15 8 9 17 21 HEAT CONTENT 73 78 80 76 71 56 49 39 25 24 21 17 13 12 9 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 13. 14. 20. 22. 21. 20. 22. 16. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 17. 29. 36. 44. 44. 46. 42. 36. 29. 25. 14. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.1 77.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 15.7% 10.4% 7.2% 5.6% 10.7% 11.7% 19.2% Logistic: 3.6% 11.1% 6.4% 3.7% 0.8% 3.0% 2.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 9.2% 5.7% 3.7% 2.2% 4.6% 4.9% 7.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 21.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 6.0% SDCON: 2.6% 15.1% 6.8% 3.3% 1.6% 3.8% 2.9% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/28/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 42 47 59 66 74 74 76 72 66 59 55 44 36 34 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 44 56 63 71 71 73 69 63 56 52 41 33 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 49 56 64 64 66 62 56 49 45 34 26 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 37 44 52 52 54 50 44 37 33 22 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT