* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 63 60 57 49 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 67 63 60 57 49 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 67 62 59 56 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 31 37 36 41 54 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 3 9 10 5 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 267 260 248 235 222 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 123 122 127 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 70 64 56 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 31 33 32 34 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 97 126 136 162 224 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 100 113 122 134 39 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 19 12 1 -36 -162 -225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 614 607 699 667 799 956 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.7 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.1 38.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.8 69.5 69.1 67.7 66.3 61.3 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 14 17 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 13 12 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -11. -18. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -6. -6. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -15. -18. -26. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.5 69.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 67 63 60 57 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 70 67 64 56 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 65 57 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 54 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT