* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 74 71 68 60 43 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 80 74 71 68 60 43 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 80 75 72 70 62 53 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 29 35 37 46 61 74 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 2 4 6 7 19 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 286 265 262 251 238 238 236 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.8 26.5 25.8 23.4 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 139 128 124 124 119 103 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 70 75 72 63 55 60 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 32 33 32 28 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 76 83 118 122 203 214 136 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 30 84 108 119 137 55 45 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 28 17 3 -87 -42 -16 -188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 788 719 669 717 713 773 886 780 1353 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.3 33.5 34.6 35.7 37.0 38.6 41.8 45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.1 68.9 68.0 67.0 62.4 55.3 46.0 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 16 25 34 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 13 12 10 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -21. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 3. 2. -2. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -16. -19. -22. -30. -47. -65. -82. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.0 69.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 5( 16) 3( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 80 74 71 68 60 43 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 83 80 77 69 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 83 80 72 55 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 69 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT