* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 95 88 84 80 74 62 43 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 95 88 84 80 74 62 43 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 97 92 89 86 81 73 57 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 29 29 29 35 36 57 64 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 3 6 1 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 323 298 279 269 243 249 240 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.1 26.3 26.1 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 146 142 130 129 123 123 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 72 75 74 61 57 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 30 32 37 36 34 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 75 77 117 152 189 192 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 26 21 69 87 164 113 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 18 32 31 21 -26 -88 -38 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 850 743 725 733 785 876 798 993 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.8 32.1 33.3 34.5 36.1 37.5 39.7 43.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.6 68.9 68.3 67.8 64.4 58.6 50.6 41.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 20 29 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 17 13 12 12 13 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -27. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -22. -28. -35. -37. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 6. 3. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -21. -25. -30. -43. -62. -90. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 29.5 68.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/30/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 11( 35) 7( 40) 5( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 95 88 84 80 74 62 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 97 93 89 83 71 52 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 97 93 87 75 56 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 85 73 54 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 80 68 49 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 95 86 80 77 74 62 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 95 88 79 73 69 57 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS