* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 106 101 95 83 69 51 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 114 106 101 95 83 69 51 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 117 112 107 104 94 82 66 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 32 27 25 29 29 46 56 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -1 3 2 10 8 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 330 320 292 275 253 245 248 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 26.9 26.8 26.0 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 146 147 142 125 127 122 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.7 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 4 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 65 67 72 77 68 58 57 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 30 31 35 35 33 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 48 46 68 83 119 188 197 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 59 15 35 81 115 153 84 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 14 16 23 32 9 -40 -42 -241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 950 950 832 756 695 754 813 880 859 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.2 33.3 35.5 36.8 38.7 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.3 68.7 68.7 68.7 66.4 61.8 54.1 43.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 17 26 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 22 17 13 12 13 9 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -10. -20. -34. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -15. -20. -25. -32. -37. -38. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 4. 1. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -19. -25. -37. -51. -69. -99. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 28.5 67.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 512.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 27( 51) 17( 59) 9( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 114 106 101 95 83 69 51 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 111 106 100 88 74 56 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 111 105 93 79 61 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 104 92 78 60 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 89 75 57 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 114 105 99 96 90 76 58 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 114 106 97 91 87 73 55 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS