* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 110 102 96 85 75 56 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 119 110 102 96 85 75 56 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 121 114 108 103 97 86 72 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 33 27 25 30 35 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -1 4 7 9 12 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 330 330 325 302 263 244 248 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.4 26.9 26.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 146 146 144 130 127 121 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 64 67 69 75 75 60 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 27 29 32 34 30 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 29 59 55 75 131 169 252 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 34 57 39 45 115 160 113 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 21 18 19 28 20 -16 -42 -204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 897 956 931 839 750 717 766 870 739 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.7 30.9 32.0 34.4 36.2 37.7 40.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.3 68.0 68.6 68.8 68.9 68.0 64.6 58.2 50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 14 22 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 27 23 17 14 13 14 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -21. -35. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -16. -23. -28. -34. -35. -36. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. -2. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -23. -29. -40. -50. -69. -89. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 27.5 67.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 29( 56) 19( 64) 10( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 119 110 102 96 85 75 56 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 115 107 101 90 80 61 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 113 107 96 86 67 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 109 98 88 69 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 95 85 66 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 119 110 104 101 95 85 66 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 119 110 101 95 91 81 62 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS