* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 104 96 91 85 77 66 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 109 104 96 91 85 77 66 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 110 105 99 95 92 86 76 60 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 28 32 32 26 23 28 47 49 67 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -1 3 10 9 22 25 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 327 331 338 326 277 256 244 245 214 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.1 26.9 26.8 25.9 24.4 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 151 146 145 139 125 127 120 109 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 58 65 67 70 79 68 59 60 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 28 28 31 34 34 29 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -2 31 55 61 89 129 213 185 107 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 0 47 51 19 91 103 161 64 16 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 12 18 21 16 32 14 -51 -86 -284 -197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 854 906 944 949 839 700 772 814 930 793 1226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.6 30.7 33.2 35.2 36.7 38.3 41.5 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.3 68.0 68.5 68.9 68.7 66.8 62.1 54.9 46.2 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 16 25 33 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 27 23 18 12 13 10 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -15. -27. -38. -50. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -19. -24. -28. -28. -28. -29. -25. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. -5. -22. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -19. -24. -30. -38. -49. -69. -100. -108. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.7 66.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 629.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 26( 49) 12( 55) 10( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 109 104 96 91 85 77 66 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 109 101 96 90 82 71 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 103 98 92 84 73 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 94 86 75 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 90 82 71 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 109 100 94 91 88 80 69 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 109 104 95 89 85 77 66 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS