* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 117 111 104 92 84 77 66 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 121 117 111 104 92 84 77 66 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 122 119 114 107 98 92 83 74 61 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 24 30 29 21 29 36 53 69 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 -1 0 4 10 6 4 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 333 330 339 344 306 266 249 256 251 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 27.4 26.7 26.7 26.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 155 150 146 146 130 124 127 124 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 6 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 58 64 67 75 74 61 57 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 30 30 29 32 34 34 33 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -24 -9 6 41 69 127 147 163 180 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 0 -3 29 48 37 84 127 95 -12 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 1 16 22 18 14 6 -30 -57 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 796 864 921 969 953 756 708 774 867 781 926 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.8 27.7 28.7 29.6 31.9 34.4 35.7 37.1 39.7 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.5 67.2 67.8 68.4 68.9 68.1 65.4 59.7 51.6 42.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 19 29 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 30 27 26 23 14 13 13 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -17. -31. -44. -57. -68. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -29. -27. -27. -25. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 6. 6. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -21. -33. -41. -48. -59. -74. -85. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 25.8 65.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 763.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/29/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 26( 69) 13( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 25 3( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 121 117 111 104 92 84 77 66 51 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 120 114 107 95 87 80 69 54 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 115 108 96 88 81 70 55 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 108 96 88 81 70 55 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 94 86 79 68 53 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 121 112 106 103 97 89 82 71 56 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 121 117 108 102 98 90 83 72 57 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS