* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 120 116 108 96 92 85 78 68 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 122 120 116 108 96 92 85 78 68 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 122 120 117 112 103 97 91 81 71 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 23 27 30 23 23 29 49 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -5 -4 -2 1 3 8 4 10 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 331 337 339 349 338 282 266 250 262 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.2 26.8 25.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 160 155 152 146 140 129 127 118 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 55 61 67 70 78 69 54 58 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 29 28 28 33 34 37 37 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -28 -26 -13 7 51 94 130 155 193 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 15 -18 -14 24 30 74 95 127 51 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 2 7 17 18 33 27 -27 14 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 798 853 911 946 861 706 798 811 872 819 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.5 28.4 30.6 32.9 34.8 36.7 38.8 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.6 66.4 67.1 67.8 68.7 68.8 67.0 62.2 55.2 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 17 26 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 35 32 28 27 19 13 14 10 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 0. -6. -15. -28. -41. -54. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -26. -24. -24. -23. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -17. -29. -33. -40. -47. -57. -66. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 25.1 64.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 803.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 33( 58) 28( 70) 19( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 19( 60) 4( 62) 0( 62) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 120 116 108 96 92 85 78 68 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 122 118 110 98 94 87 80 70 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 109 97 93 86 79 69 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 107 95 91 84 77 67 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 94 90 83 76 66 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 97 93 86 79 69 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 122 120 111 105 101 97 90 83 73 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS