* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 126 124 118 105 98 93 85 76 68 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 127 126 124 118 105 98 93 85 76 68 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 126 123 122 120 111 103 97 88 78 66 53 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 21 25 27 24 28 32 55 66 97 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -8 -7 -5 0 1 3 7 3 19 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 340 334 336 341 346 314 286 256 254 259 217 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.0 26.8 26.7 26.0 22.0 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 161 155 147 146 138 125 127 122 96 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.3 -49.1 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 53 57 61 69 73 76 65 58 54 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 28 30 30 29 32 36 36 38 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -24 -27 -28 -18 25 77 125 127 169 215 200 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 8 6 -28 -21 39 41 94 119 87 33 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 2 3 4 11 19 32 0 -28 19 -407 -397 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 607 678 760 828 879 989 796 729 823 872 813 903 1490 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.4 27.2 29.2 31.3 33.5 35.2 37.0 39.4 43.5 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.8 64.7 65.6 66.4 67.2 68.3 68.9 68.2 65.4 59.8 51.7 42.4 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 12 19 29 37 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 43 38 33 30 26 16 13 13 7 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -0. -6. -16. -29. -42. -56. -66. -75. -80. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -15. -23. -24. -22. -20. -18. -15. -13. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -12. -25. -32. -37. -45. -54. -62. -71. -75. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 24.2 63.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 880.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 32( 77) 27( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 48( 66) 11( 69) 1( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 127 126 124 118 105 98 93 85 76 68 58 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 128 126 120 107 100 95 87 78 70 60 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 118 105 98 93 85 76 68 58 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 114 101 94 89 81 72 64 54 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 130 121 115 112 111 98 91 86 78 69 61 51 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 130 127 118 112 109 101 94 89 81 72 64 54 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 130 127 126 117 111 107 100 95 87 78 70 60 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS