* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 52 48 46 43 40 33 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 52 48 46 43 40 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 48 45 41 36 31 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 37 35 41 50 47 47 39 27 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 11 9 1 0 -7 -3 -3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 248 243 237 244 258 254 264 276 311 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.0 22.4 21.8 22.1 21.4 20.9 19.4 20.8 22.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 93 90 91 87 83 78 81 89 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -56.2 -56.5 -57.1 -57.4 -57.5 -57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 44 44 42 40 36 38 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 26 26 28 27 23 17 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 27 3 -8 -2 17 29 48 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 62 53 59 68 4 18 18 -3 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -12 -24 -8 -21 -29 -21 -22 -16 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1956 1840 1552 1301 1058 643 300 51 34 94 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.5 38.2 39.0 39.7 40.3 39.9 38.5 36.7 35.6 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.6 30.4 27.3 24.5 21.7 16.8 12.8 10.0 8.0 7.1 7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 26 24 23 21 17 14 12 9 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 27 CX,CY: 27/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -4. -13. -21. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -20. -27. -34. -38. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.7 33.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 55 52 48 46 43 40 33 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 52 50 47 44 37 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 50 47 44 37 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 42 35 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT