* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 53 47 43 37 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 53 47 43 37 29 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 59 56 53 48 42 36 29 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 31 34 38 42 51 45 40 34 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 9 10 8 0 -3 -6 -6 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 253 246 242 237 253 251 259 273 297 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.6 22.9 22.3 22.1 21.4 21.1 20.5 17.5 21.9 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 101 96 93 92 87 85 82 73 85 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -55.2 -56.2 -56.7 -57.3 -57.7 -57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 44 41 40 42 38 36 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 27 27 29 29 26 20 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 40 35 11 -4 6 22 30 56 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 43 61 43 56 32 30 -1 -19 -22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -13 -21 -16 -19 -17 -24 -17 -6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1776 1938 1822 1547 1281 830 464 149 -35 56 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.1 37.7 38.6 39.4 40.4 40.5 39.4 37.9 36.5 35.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.7 33.5 30.3 27.3 24.3 19.0 14.6 11.1 8.4 7.0 6.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 26 26 25 23 19 15 14 11 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 28 CX,CY: 28/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -23. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -13. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -10. -18. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -28. -34. -39. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.4 36.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 59 56 53 47 43 37 29 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 58 55 49 45 39 31 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 55 49 45 39 31 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 46 42 36 28 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT