* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 63 59 48 45 40 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 63 59 48 45 40 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 68 65 60 52 46 40 30 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 33 36 41 40 51 47 48 40 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 3 5 10 0 -1 -7 -4 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 273 251 242 235 241 258 252 268 292 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.7 23.7 22.9 22.1 22.4 21.3 20.7 16.0 19.4 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 101 96 92 93 87 83 70 77 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -55.0 -56.9 -57.1 -57.7 -58.1 -57.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 47 44 44 42 42 41 37 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 25 26 28 26 28 27 22 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 42 43 30 -14 -10 5 13 25 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 47 54 59 32 53 13 13 12 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 -5 -11 -11 -25 -22 -31 -27 -29 -16 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1570 1723 1899 1855 1570 1058 611 249 -21 -71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.7 37.2 38.1 38.9 40.2 40.8 40.3 39.2 37.8 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.4 37.1 33.9 30.8 27.6 21.7 16.3 12.0 9.1 7.6 6.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 27 26 26 25 22 19 14 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 28 CX,CY: 28/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -26. -31. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -11. -17. -20. -21. -22. -18. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 4. 3. -5. -16. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -27. -30. -35. -42. -50. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 36.2 40.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 67 63 59 48 45 40 31 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 70 66 62 51 48 43 34 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 63 52 49 44 35 33 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 50 47 42 33 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT