* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 63 57 54 47 42 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 67 63 57 54 47 42 39 31 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 68 63 60 57 50 44 39 33 28 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 35 31 35 44 50 58 47 46 35 23 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 2 4 1 5 -5 0 -4 -5 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 290 261 248 245 237 256 256 266 273 323 347 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.7 24.9 23.7 23.0 21.5 21.2 21.2 20.9 17.6 20.9 21.4 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 116 110 102 97 88 87 85 83 74 82 81 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -54.4 -55.6 -57.1 -57.4 -58.3 -58.1 -58.4 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 -1.0 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 55 50 46 42 41 40 36 33 36 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 25 24 26 27 27 28 23 16 10 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 32 44 48 42 -2 -21 -7 -9 11 28 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 41 55 50 17 52 3 18 -21 -32 -36 -29 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 22 1 -17 -20 -15 -36 -27 -35 -25 -13 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1415 1541 1697 1861 1867 1367 926 522 270 12 10 25 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.3 36.6 37.4 38.1 39.6 40.7 40.8 40.0 38.6 37.0 36.0 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.0 40.8 37.7 34.3 30.9 25.3 20.1 15.2 12.4 9.5 6.8 6.2 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 27 28 25 22 20 15 12 13 9 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 24 CX,CY: 24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -27. -32. -35. -38. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -21. -16. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. -4. -15. -26. -33. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -18. -21. -28. -33. -36. -44. -51. -57. -63. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 35.9 44.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/25/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 67 63 57 54 47 42 39 31 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 70 64 61 54 49 46 38 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 65 62 55 50 47 39 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 55 50 47 39 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT