* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 73 66 56 44 40 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 73 66 56 44 40 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 76 71 61 53 45 38 31 25 23 25 29 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 37 37 36 39 42 56 59 53 46 31 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -2 4 9 0 -9 -5 -5 -2 1 6 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 291 289 270 251 238 245 261 262 264 263 302 338 311 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.4 25.0 24.5 23.6 22.1 22.3 21.1 20.9 20.5 19.7 17.4 20.1 21.5 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 110 106 101 92 91 85 83 80 77 71 77 83 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -54.0 -54.4 -55.9 -56.6 -57.8 -58.8 -58.9 -59.1 -58.8 -58.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 54 55 53 50 45 42 42 35 31 26 26 25 25 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 25 25 28 27 29 25 19 9 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 37 43 45 36 3 -5 -14 -1 -5 -14 -6 5 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 24 51 49 59 65 31 5 -27 -23 -39 -31 -23 -22 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 20 17 -6 -12 -20 -28 -37 -27 -50 -20 -16 -5 13 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1280 1395 1552 1712 1892 1549 1110 776 419 171 64 9 -22 18 -50 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.4 36.6 37.1 37.5 39.3 40.6 41.0 40.6 39.7 38.4 37.6 37.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.9 43.5 40.1 36.9 33.7 27.4 22.3 18.3 14.0 11.3 10.1 8.9 7.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 27 26 26 23 18 16 14 9 7 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 24 CX,CY: 24/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -29. -38. -47. -53. -55. -57. -59. -60. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -18. -24. -29. -31. -31. -26. -20. -14. -9. -5. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. -0. -10. -26. -32. -35. -33. -33. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -24. -34. -46. -50. -59. -69. -80. -82. -79. -73. -69. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 36.1 46.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 6( 17) 3( 20) 0( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 78 73 66 56 44 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 83 78 71 61 49 45 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 74 64 52 48 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 63 51 47 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 49 45 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 60 48 44 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT