* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 82 77 71 58 49 41 37 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 88 82 77 71 58 49 41 37 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 89 84 80 76 67 57 49 42 36 30 26 25 26 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 36 38 36 50 55 58 48 44 24 11 16 10 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 3 1 4 -7 -4 -7 -2 6 4 8 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 285 286 275 258 251 240 252 258 261 263 350 345 300 277 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.1 26.6 25.7 25.0 23.1 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.7 17.8 18.1 22.1 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 119 125 116 110 97 89 87 85 83 81 72 73 85 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -54.3 -55.2 -56.1 -57.1 -58.3 -58.7 -58.7 -58.6 -58.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 50 54 56 54 47 42 41 34 32 30 30 26 26 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 25 25 27 30 30 30 25 17 10 5 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 27 42 53 53 12 21 15 29 19 13 27 63 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 16 22 38 73 43 39 -4 9 -27 -60 -56 -27 -15 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 11 16 32 0 -4 -23 -30 -41 -41 -24 -15 -5 -1 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1229 1274 1359 1480 1638 1942 1425 971 686 422 189 23 12 79 70 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.8 36.0 36.2 36.7 37.1 38.3 40.0 41.2 41.1 40.7 40.0 38.9 37.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.2 47.4 44.6 41.3 38.0 31.8 26.0 20.8 17.2 14.0 11.4 9.7 9.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 25 27 26 25 22 17 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 21 CX,CY: 20/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -21. -31. -41. -51. -58. -61. -63. -65. -68. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -19. -28. -32. -34. -33. -27. -19. -12. -8. -4. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. -1. -14. -25. -32. -33. -31. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -24. -37. -46. -54. -58. -64. -73. -79. -81. -77. -73. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 35.8 50.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 570.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 8( 24) 4( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 88 82 77 71 58 49 41 37 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 88 83 77 64 55 47 43 37 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 86 80 67 58 50 46 40 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 66 57 49 45 39 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 63 54 46 42 36 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 88 79 73 70 63 54 46 42 36 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT