* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 87 82 75 61 52 43 42 36 31 19 16 17 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 93 87 82 75 61 52 43 42 36 31 19 23 28 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 93 86 82 79 70 61 53 47 41 34 29 27 28 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 27 29 36 37 43 47 56 44 41 30 15 21 21 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 0 4 6 -3 -3 -2 -2 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 285 286 283 279 249 235 241 242 259 268 301 340 330 321 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.6 26.2 26.6 25.7 23.9 22.1 21.9 20.8 20.5 20.6 20.2 16.1 20.9 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 125 120 124 116 102 92 90 84 80 80 80 70 80 81 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -54.1 -54.8 -56.5 -56.2 -58.4 -59.3 -59.6 -59.5 -59.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 48 50 55 57 50 44 46 44 36 32 31 34 33 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 23 24 25 28 28 31 27 22 12 6 3 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 4 13 30 43 50 32 0 11 17 13 -8 0 -16 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 23 17 34 40 44 75 40 23 20 -41 -36 -6 -16 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 12 14 22 30 -31 -20 -29 -40 -7 -49 -34 -20 -22 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1248 1247 1294 1386 1510 1822 1643 1179 681 409 328 148 -99 -112 1 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 35.7 36.0 36.3 36.5 37.7 39.4 41.0 42.1 42.0 41.1 40.1 39.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.8 49.8 46.8 43.9 41.0 34.5 28.5 23.3 17.5 14.1 12.7 10.8 7.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 25 24 24 25 26 23 22 17 9 8 10 9 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 20 CX,CY: 19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -22. -32. -43. -54. -62. -67. -68. -71. -73. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -32. -33. -31. -24. -16. -10. -6. -1. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 1. -7. -23. -32. -35. -30. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -25. -39. -48. -57. -58. -64. -69. -81. -84. -83. -76. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 35.4 52.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 662.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 10( 30) 5( 33) 0( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 93 87 82 75 61 52 43 42 36 31 19 23 28 32 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 93 88 81 67 58 49 48 42 37 25 29 34 38 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 84 70 61 52 51 45 40 28 32 37 41 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 83 69 60 51 50 44 39 27 31 36 40 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 67 58 49 48 42 37 25 29 34 38 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 93 84 78 75 66 57 48 47 41 36 24 28 33 37 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 93 87 78 72 68 59 50 49 43 38 26 30 35 39 DIS DIS