* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 97 90 84 73 58 53 48 46 43 34 25 23 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 103 97 90 84 73 58 53 48 46 43 34 25 23 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 104 97 91 86 78 69 60 52 46 40 35 31 30 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 27 27 32 36 53 53 51 35 26 23 18 14 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 4 0 -3 4 -3 -3 1 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 280 285 283 285 264 249 227 237 245 270 304 347 358 347 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.7 25.1 23.2 21.2 21.7 20.4 19.8 19.5 18.6 17.1 20.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 126 122 126 111 98 86 87 82 80 78 75 70 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -54.4 -55.2 -56.5 -57.3 -58.4 -58.7 -59.0 -58.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 45 49 50 56 55 45 45 44 37 41 44 35 33 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 25 25 29 31 29 26 19 11 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -5 6 12 28 66 50 3 0 7 28 24 10 -5 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 25 31 26 33 53 18 83 -7 42 -9 -53 -53 -28 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 26 23 14 22 -3 -30 -15 -28 -28 -24 -30 -21 -6 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1256 1270 1260 1305 1400 1664 1904 1373 1074 723 345 143 55 -10 -111 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.2 35.5 35.8 36.1 36.7 38.5 40.5 41.6 42.5 42.8 41.7 39.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.2 52.8 50.3 47.1 43.9 38.1 31.4 25.5 22.2 18.1 13.5 10.6 10.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 23 26 25 25 27 19 15 16 14 11 10 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 19 CX,CY: 17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -24. -36. -49. -62. -71. -77. -80. -82. -85. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -19. -27. -33. -34. -33. -24. -15. -9. -4. 2. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 8. 5. -1. -12. -23. -29. -33. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -26. -37. -52. -57. -62. -64. -67. -76. -85. -87. -89. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 34.9 55.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 811.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/24/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 20( 43) 9( 48) 4( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 103 97 90 84 73 58 53 48 46 43 34 25 23 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 103 96 90 79 64 59 54 52 49 40 31 29 33 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 99 93 82 67 62 57 55 52 43 34 32 36 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 94 83 68 63 58 56 53 44 35 33 37 DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 80 65 60 55 53 50 41 32 30 34 DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 103 94 88 85 79 64 59 54 52 49 40 31 29 33 DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 103 97 88 82 78 63 58 53 51 48 39 30 28 32 DIS DIS