* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 103 98 92 79 64 56 50 49 47 44 39 34 31 29 25 V (KT) LAND 115 110 103 98 92 79 64 56 50 49 47 44 39 31 30 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 100 95 84 73 64 56 50 44 39 36 33 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 24 28 26 27 37 44 56 57 43 38 28 24 20 22 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 3 0 0 -4 -6 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 262 275 283 285 281 283 255 228 222 237 241 270 295 319 325 338 359 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 27.6 26.7 26.3 25.7 23.8 21.9 21.2 20.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 15.3 19.4 22.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 136 126 122 116 102 91 87 82 78 76 77 69 77 87 83 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -54.3 -55.6 -57.1 -57.2 -58.3 -58.5 -58.7 -58.8 -59.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 42 39 42 45 48 57 53 44 46 53 46 47 41 40 45 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 23 25 26 24 27 29 31 29 26 21 14 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -14 -3 -1 10 49 78 47 -4 14 47 35 16 16 4 -36 -31 200 MB DIV 46 28 23 20 18 36 48 29 37 9 39 -13 -32 -15 -4 -18 -30 700-850 TADV 9 8 19 22 9 32 -50 -51 -30 -48 -14 -33 -34 -12 -8 4 8 LAND (KM) 1242 1254 1236 1243 1301 1524 1815 1588 1143 751 434 219 137 -12 -263 -256 -267 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.9 35.5 35.7 35.9 36.4 38.1 39.9 41.8 43.5 44.5 44.1 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 55.3 53.1 50.0 46.9 40.9 34.2 27.9 23.1 18.5 14.2 11.5 10.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 25 25 26 27 23 20 18 13 9 11 11 9 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -24. -38. -52. -66. -75. -82. -85. -88. -89. -94. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -14. -18. -26. -31. -33. -32. -25. -15. -8. -3. 3. 9. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. 3. 5. 7. 2. -3. -10. -20. -26. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -23. -36. -51. -59. -65. -66. -68. -71. -76. -81. -84. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 34.3 57.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 967.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 25( 48) 13( 55) 7( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 110 103 98 92 79 64 56 50 49 47 44 39 31 30 29 29 18HR AGO 115 114 107 102 96 83 68 60 54 53 51 48 43 35 34 33 33 12HR AGO 115 112 111 106 100 87 72 64 58 57 55 52 47 39 38 37 37 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 99 86 71 63 57 56 54 51 46 38 37 36 36 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 83 68 60 54 53 51 48 43 35 34 33 33 IN 6HR 115 110 101 95 92 85 70 62 56 55 53 50 45 37 36 35 35 IN 12HR 115 110 103 94 88 84 69 61 55 54 52 49 44 36 35 34 34