* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 112 109 103 92 81 70 63 60 58 55 46 39 33 33 31 V (KT) LAND 120 117 112 109 103 92 81 70 63 60 58 55 46 39 31 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 111 107 102 91 80 71 62 53 46 40 36 34 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 17 21 24 27 38 46 54 53 37 26 23 8 18 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 0 4 3 8 -2 7 4 -4 -7 -1 -2 2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 277 285 291 286 289 274 243 232 227 227 247 245 275 273 260 255 SST (C) 28.5 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.6 24.9 23.3 21.8 21.2 20.0 20.2 20.4 19.4 16.0 19.8 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 136 140 135 124 125 110 98 89 86 80 80 81 77 69 76 78 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -54.2 -55.0 -55.7 -56.8 -57.6 -58.6 -58.5 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.3 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 47 43 40 43 45 51 58 49 43 47 44 42 39 38 42 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 24 24 25 26 28 32 34 32 29 22 15 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -23 -16 -5 2 26 79 85 38 26 53 65 58 52 40 30 8 200 MB DIV 19 32 18 24 17 23 45 48 63 16 62 4 -30 -33 -12 -17 -3 700-850 TADV 15 11 10 22 21 22 0 -29 -17 -24 -18 -14 -28 -7 -5 0 13 LAND (KM) 1243 1278 1297 1298 1263 1425 1687 1884 1461 1054 720 453 286 103 -95 -185 -282 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.0 34.4 35.0 35.5 35.7 36.8 38.7 40.3 42.2 43.7 43.5 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.2 57.4 55.5 52.8 50.1 44.2 37.6 31.2 26.5 22.1 18.1 14.8 12.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 20 23 23 25 27 23 19 18 14 12 11 9 8 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -25. -39. -54. -69. -79. -86. -91. -96. -98. -101. -102. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -25. -25. -21. -13. -6. -1. 6. 12. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 10. 5. -6. -16. -25. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -17. -28. -39. -50. -57. -60. -62. -65. -74. -81. -87. -87. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 33.5 59.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1003.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 30( 53) 25( 65) 13( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 117 112 109 103 92 81 70 63 60 58 55 46 39 31 30 30 18HR AGO 120 119 114 111 105 94 83 72 65 62 60 57 48 41 33 32 32 12HR AGO 120 117 116 113 107 96 85 74 67 64 62 59 50 43 35 34 34 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 104 93 82 71 64 61 59 56 47 40 32 31 31 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 90 79 68 61 58 56 53 44 37 29 28 28 IN 6HR 120 117 108 102 99 92 81 70 63 60 58 55 46 39 31 30 30 IN 12HR 120 117 112 103 97 93 82 71 64 61 59 56 47 40 32 31 31