* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 115 110 106 95 86 76 68 60 61 59 54 45 37 35 32 V (KT) LAND 120 118 115 110 106 95 86 76 68 60 61 59 54 45 37 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 113 109 105 95 87 77 66 57 49 43 38 35 32 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 14 19 21 22 33 44 50 58 34 29 24 28 28 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 0 2 2 0 0 6 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 273 276 278 281 285 276 290 258 234 230 237 256 268 293 290 295 317 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.3 25.9 24.0 21.9 21.0 19.4 18.9 20.3 19.6 17.8 17.8 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 136 140 134 121 118 103 90 85 79 77 81 78 71 70 74 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -55.4 -56.5 -57.8 -58.5 -58.5 -58.1 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 -0.1 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 47 44 41 43 47 56 55 42 45 43 41 43 48 50 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 30 33 30 26 17 11 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -17 -21 -16 -1 10 46 78 61 11 17 38 53 23 28 3 -10 200 MB DIV 15 20 36 20 23 21 38 54 55 19 7 13 -45 -14 -32 -25 -43 700-850 TADV 19 17 12 11 13 13 41 -25 -30 -33 -36 -21 -22 -26 -23 -28 -3 LAND (KM) 1274 1249 1237 1266 1258 1310 1512 1822 1690 1280 978 706 428 194 33 -46 -15 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.5 34.2 34.8 35.3 35.6 36.3 37.8 39.8 41.9 43.9 44.4 43.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 59.0 57.7 55.3 53.0 47.6 41.3 34.4 29.1 24.8 21.3 17.8 14.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 17 20 21 24 27 25 22 18 14 12 12 10 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -12. -23. -37. -51. -66. -77. -84. -89. -94. -98. -101. -101. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. -19. -12. -5. -0. 6. 12. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 9. 11. 7. -1. -13. -22. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -14. -25. -34. -44. -52. -60. -59. -61. -66. -75. -83. -85. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 32.8 60.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 964.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 31( 54) 27( 66) 17( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 118 115 110 106 95 86 76 68 60 61 59 54 45 37 31 30 18HR AGO 120 119 116 111 107 96 87 77 69 61 62 60 55 46 38 32 31 12HR AGO 120 117 116 111 107 96 87 77 69 61 62 60 55 46 38 32 31 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 106 95 86 76 68 60 61 59 54 45 37 31 30 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 90 81 71 63 55 56 54 49 40 32 26 25 IN 6HR 120 118 109 103 100 92 83 73 65 57 58 56 51 42 34 28 27 IN 12HR 120 118 115 106 100 96 87 77 69 61 62 60 55 46 38 32 31