* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/23/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 118 115 110 101 90 80 68 63 63 61 59 57 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 121 118 115 110 101 90 80 68 63 63 61 59 57 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 122 120 115 110 101 91 81 71 62 54 47 43 42 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 11 16 23 31 37 50 50 51 33 18 10 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 0 2 1 -1 4 8 -7 -6 -8 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 265 267 273 269 282 285 280 252 232 212 211 231 248 290 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.8 28.0 26.7 26.6 24.8 23.2 21.5 19.2 18.1 19.6 19.6 19.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 137 140 125 125 109 98 89 79 75 78 76 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -53.1 -54.3 -54.9 -54.6 -55.1 -56.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.2 1.3 2.3 2.8 2.2 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 48 44 41 45 50 58 52 50 57 55 52 53 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 22 22 25 25 26 27 31 35 34 31 27 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -13 -10 -10 -13 11 19 75 80 62 71 93 121 116 91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 18 24 38 24 28 25 55 39 105 42 82 80 -5 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 15 15 12 7 22 15 19 -17 -5 -39 -22 -5 -4 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1309 1276 1239 1256 1256 1259 1396 1692 1865 1348 930 642 367 198 129 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.8 33.5 34.2 34.8 35.5 36.0 36.9 38.8 41.4 44.0 44.9 43.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.4 60.3 59.3 57.4 55.5 50.4 44.2 37.4 31.0 25.5 20.7 16.8 13.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 17 19 23 26 27 25 23 18 12 10 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 9 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -21. -35. -49. -63. -74. -81. -86. -92. -96. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -17. -18. -19. -15. -10. -4. 1. 7. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 11. 5. -2. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -5. -10. -19. -30. -40. -52. -57. -57. -59. -61. -63. -68. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 32.1 61.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 885.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/23/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 32( 54) 29( 68) 23( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 121 118 115 110 101 90 80 68 63 63 61 59 57 52 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 116 113 108 99 88 78 66 61 61 59 57 55 50 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 113 108 99 88 78 66 61 61 59 57 55 50 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 105 96 85 75 63 58 58 56 54 52 47 DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 92 81 71 59 54 54 52 50 48 43 DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 121 112 106 103 98 87 77 65 60 60 58 56 54 49 DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 121 118 109 103 99 88 78 66 61 61 59 57 55 50 DIS DIS